So I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or “incentives” for skill. “The strategy for the discoverers and entrepreneurs is to rely less on top-down planning and focus on maximum tinkering and recognizing opportunities when they present themselves.“Indeed, in some domains- such as scientific discovery and venture capital investments- there is a disproportionate payoff from the unknown, since you typically have little to lose and plenty to gain from a rare event.”.To make a killing in some industry, you need to do something beyond the currently conceived realm of possibilities (be a chef).“The payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.”.Despite #1, we create explanations for it after the fact, making it seem “explainable and predictable.”.
It is an outlier beyond the normal range of expectations because nothing in the past could point to it being likely to happen.
0 kommentar(er)
